
Anchoring Bias: The First Number You Hear Shapes Every Estimate You Make
When people are asked to estimate an unknown quantity, their answers are heavily influenced by any number they were exposed to beforehand — even if that number is arbitrary or irrelevant. In classic experiments, people who first spun a wheel stopping on 65 estimated that African countries made up 45% of the UN, while those whose wheel stopped on 10 estimated 25%. This 'anchoring effect' is exploited constantly in negotiations, pricing, and sales — such as showing a 'crossed-out' original price next to a sale price.